Horner: Odds are against Alonso

Red Bull boss Christian Horner says the odds are against Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso in his title hunt for 2012. The Spaniard won Sunday’s European Grand Prix in Valencia in front of his home crowd but those days could turn quite easily.

Alonso knows that Ferrari are not the fastest car saying:

“I think we always need to be cautious and we always need to be honest with ourselves first and with our supporters, saying that we will fight, will work day and night to be competitive and to fight for the title which is the ultimate goal for Ferrari,” he said.

“Any championship in which we participate, the championship should be the target, regarding the history and the level of the team.

“But yesterday we were P11 and P13 so we need to work. It’s true that we believe and we will never give up, we will have confidence in ourselves and we will arrive with optimism at every Grand Prix we go to, but at the same time, apart from winning today or finishing sixth today, we know that we are not in the position that we want to be and there are a few cars quicker than us and we cannot be blind to that. We need to work.”

The car is certainly quick but not on the pace of the others according to Alonso and as for his driving, he says he was buoyed by the home crowd and the adulation he received from them as he drove to the top step of the podium:

“We pushed, but as we said, these days races are decided by little factors and today we had retirements from Grosjean then from Vettel. We had the tyres, the safety car when we took the opportunity to stop as probably everybody did but we did a stop. I think there are maybe races like this year in Malaysia that I feel more proud of the driving itself.”

Christian Horner figures that the odds of keeping his title fight alive is going to be a difficult one as attrition and track conditions are always at play in Formula One. The odds of having 20 races in the points are against the Spaniard according to Horner:

“Fernando has done a tremendous job, scoring in every single race, but statistics say he has to have one bad weekend in 20,” he said.

“It will hopefully balance itself out over the course of the season.

“Others had difficult days as well – Lewis (Hamilton) did not finish – but we have extended our lead in the constructors’ championship by a further eight points.”

If history is any road map to the future, Horner may be right but just barely. Alonso only had a points finish in every race in 2011 save one where he had a DNF (Canada). In 2010, he failed to finish in the points for only two races and had one DNF (Spa).

While Horner is technically correct, it is also hard to imagine Alonso disappearing from the title hunt any time soon with that track record in a car that may not be the fastest one on the grid.

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